Volume 5, No. 8, August 2004

Nitin

The tidal wave of mass fury against the retrograde, neo-liberal, pro-Hindutva, fascist policies of the TDP government brought the same old tri-coloured bandits, represented by the Congress party, to power. The fact that it was the same party that had initiated the anti-people neo-liberal policies starting with the Rajiv Gandhi regime particularly after the reactionary PVN Rao government assumed office in 1991; the fact that it was the same party that had unleashed communal passions by throwing open the gates of Babari Masjid in 1986 and emained a silent accomplice when the Masjid was razed to the ground by the Hindutva chauvinists in December 1992, has a notorious blood-stained history of whipping up anti-Sikh frenzy and genocide in the wake of Indira Gandhi assassination and anti-Muslim pogroms in the aftermath of the demolition of the Babari Masjid; the fact that it was the same party that had unleashed state terror in the ugliest form on the fighting nationalities in Kashmir North East, and the revolutionary armed agrarian struggles in various parts of te country, and enacted draconian laws to suppress every form of dissent and had authored the darkest chapter in post-British India—the Emergency Era, all these mattered the least for the population of a state that had been languishing in the police sate of AP headed by Chandrababu’s TDP for nine long years. For the people of AP who had been deprived of land, water, means of livelihood, health-care, education and democratic rights, the immediate goal seemed to be to throw out the oppressive regime no matter who came to power. The Congress and its allies—the TRS, CPI, CPI(M)—reaped the fruits of this massive negative vote for an unpopular regime.

The results baffled the psephologists, the media and both the victors and the vanquished. The unpopularity of the regime of Naidu and the seething hatred and discontent of the masses could not be gauged by the media and all the political pundits who were swayed by images of popular support for the TDP — a pure concoction and media fiction — rather than by the actual ground realities.

The Congress, which obtained 91 seats in the 1999 elections, gained an additional 95 securing a total of 186 seats.Its allies won 41 seats (TRS-26, CPI(M)-9, CPI-6) making the anti-TDP-BJP coalition’s strength in the Assembly to 227 or over two-thirds majority. The ruling TDP secured 47 seats and its ally, the BJP, only two seats. And of the 42 Lok Sabha seats it got just five.

Besides the unleashing of the pent-up anger of the masses that took the form of negative votes in the immediate option available to them i.e., the Parliamentary and Assembly elections, the other major factors that contributed to the Congress victory were: the attitude towards the Naxal issue and the promises made by the opposition parties in this regard, the sympathetic stand on the separate Telangana demand; promises made to the suffering peasantry such as free electricity, moratorium on loans incurred by the peasantry, stopping suicides through amelioration of their living standards and compensation to the families of suicide victims; promises to do away with the World Bank’s conditions and scrapping the anti-people projects; completion of the pending irrigation projects in three to five years; and a host of promises to the deprived sections of the society such as Dalits, women, the Backward castes, Muslims and others. The Muslim offensive against the Hindutva fascist offensive of the BJP and its partner, the TDP, was a powerful factor that influenced the voting pattern in Hyderabad and the vast tracts of Telangana and other parts of the state.

Finally, the electoral alliance between the Congress, TRS, CPI, CPI(M) and the MIM ensured the non-splitting of the anti-TDP, anti-BJP vote theerby giving the opposition great advantage. All the above factors were so overwhelming that the intense dog-fights within and between the various opposition parties and the numerous rebel candidates this gave rise to, could not alter the equation that was heavily weighed against the ruling alliance. But for these promises the Congress alliance could never have secured such a thumping majority. Particularly in Telangana region, the promises made with regard to separate Telangana and the Naxal issue fetched the opposition the maximum number of seats—96 out of a total of 107.

The TRS claimed that it would not rest until a separate Telangana state was achieved.It tried to lure the masses with the slogan the "Naxalite Agenda is our Agenda". The only difference it had with the Naxalites, it claimed, was that while the latter were trying to achieve their ends through the bullet, it was doing the same through the ballot. Both the Congress and the TRS, as well as their other allies like the CPI and CPI(M) asserted that the Naxal issue was a socio-economic issue and had to be resolved through Talks and not state terror. They called for a Judicial Enquiry into the encounter killings, an end to encounters and the training of armed vigilante squads by the state and so on.

The Congress and its allies also promised an enquiry into all the scams that took place under TDP rule, and to investigate the assets of Naidu and other political leaders and bureaucrats. Now with the reins of power in their hands, what would be the fate of the innumerable promises they had showered on the people with an eye on the vote bank?

The hopes of a better future and high expectations from the new government linger in the people’s hearts. In fact, the massive vote against the TDP-BJP alliance betray the growing democratic aspirations of the people. They would not want to see history repeat itself under the new dispensation. It was the denial of their right to live a decent life, the denial of their democratic rights, and the trampling underfoot of their democratic aspirations that had triggered off the idal wave against the TDP regime. It was not a verdict against an individual or a party but against the regressive policies that they represented and carried out at the cost of the fundamental interests of the people. Herein lies the material basis for a greater crisis and the gathering storm. The people will not take it lying down if the ruling classes take them for a ride. And this gives rise to the dilemmas of the present regime in AP.

YS Rajasekhara Reddy, who assumed the mantle of Chief Ministership, tried to impress upon the people that he would stick to the promises made during the elections by placing his first signature on free supply of electricity to the farmers. Realising that the farmers in other states too would raise the demand, Manmohan Singh, the new Prime Minister and a loyal stooge of the World Bank, said that the Congress was opposed to the supply of free electricity as a matter of principle but was implementing it in AP due to special circumstances. While this move raised the popularity of YSR temporarily, the fact is that the amount involved is miniscule—a paltry Rs. 300 crore—that is being provided by reducing the expenditure on government propaganda.

That free electricity hardly touches the fringe of the problems faced by the peasantry is proved by the mass suicides of the peasants in the wake of the new government assuming office. In just two weeks after YSR was sworn in as the new Chief Minister of the state, almost a hundred peasants had committed suicide unable to bear their worsening plight and growing indebtedness from which there seemed to be no way out. Repeated appeals by the government to the peasants not to commit suicides were of no avail. The agrarian crisis in AP is so deep-rooted that no cosmetic changes or first aid can tide it over.

The root cause of the agrarian crisis in AP, as elsewhere in India, lies in the feudal-imperialist-comprador bureaucrat capital’s stranglehold over the entire Indian economy; the monopoly of the fertile land in the lands of a few landowners; lack of irrigation facilities; the monopoly control of agricultural inputs, finance as well as the market for agricultural produce by rapacious trader-moneylender-CBB-imperialist combine; the regressive pro-imperialist policies of the State controlled by these ruling classes who sell off the people’s interests to the imperialists and their agencies such as the World Bank-IMF-WTO etc. As the Congress government is a proven agent of these masters, all their so-called reforms in the agrarian sector cannot solve a single basic problem if the peasantry. Mass suicides are bound to multiply. The peasantry will increasingly confront the State demanding a resolution of their basic issues. And the YSR government has no other option but to suppress the growing discontent of the peasant masses with the only language it is familiar with—the baton.

As soon as the YSR government assumed power, it declared that it would adhere to its electoral promises of holding Talks with the People’s War Party, create a conducive atmosphere for the Talks by putting an end to fake encounters and combing operations in the Naxal-dominated areas. It declared that it would consider the demand for lifting the ban on the CPI(ML)[People’s War] and would set up a Judicial Enquiry into all the fake encounters during the nine-year-rule of the TDP. It reiterated its stand that it considers the issue of Naxalism as a socio-economic one and it would not aggravate the situation by any provocative actions.

The notorious police bosses, especially in the Telangana districts, as well as Guntur, Prakasham and North Andhra , however, have their own agenda. Having run the police state of AP as their fiefdom for nearly two decades, the police officials have a vested interest in perpetuating and stepping up state terror in the name of countering ‘mindless Naxal violence’. Massive amounts of money flow into their pockets in the name of maintaining law and order in the areas of armed struggle. They have limitless power that has been the envy of the administrative officials and political leaders. In fact, under the TDP rule, it was the IPS officials who ran the districts, not the IAS officers or the ruling party legislators and ministers.

No wonder then, these notorious hawks staged a fake encounter on the very day preceding the swearing-in of YSR as the Chief Minister, on 12 May. Two leaders of the PW were arrested in Bellampalli town in Adilabad district and shot dead. The Chief Minister, when asked by the media, replied that the police were doing their duty but, as pressure began to build up, he had to agree to order an enquiry into the incident and to instruct the police officials not to enact fake encounters. Conflicting statements continued to appear in the Press for over a fortnight after the new government took over. The Chief Minister, YSR, and the Home Minister Jana Reddy reiterated that they were seriously intent on holding Talks with the CPI(ML)[PW] and that they had instructed the SPs of the districts not to undertake combing operations and harassment of the people in the areas of armed struggle. The DGP Sukumar stated that offensive operations would cease but "normal patrolling" would continue. Police officials in the districts stated that they had not received written orders from the government to stop combing operations.

A series of statements from the Secretaries of the State Committees of PW of NT, AP and AOB, as well as from the various democratic organizations and individuals and even Congress allies such as the CPI, pushed the government to the defensive. The government came out with assurances in the last week of May that it was quite serious in holding Talks, that it had issued specific orders to the officials not to undertake combing operations or to cause any loss of lives; that it was committed to create a congenial atmosphere for Talks; that it was setting up a Nodal Team headed by a retired Supreme Court Judge to go into issues related to Talks and to prepare the Agenda for Talks; that it would hold extensive discussions with various civil liberties organizations and prominent individuals to finalise the modalities for Talks. On 4 June,the Home Minister declared withdrawal of the cash prizes on the dead Naxalites upon the insistence of the Concerned Citizens’ Committee as it served as a material incentive for covert agents. The cash rewards on those who are alive, however, were not withdrawn.

While initiating such half-hearted measures and creating a media-hype that it was sincerely committed to bring peace to the war-torn state, the government tried to evade the question of cease-fire as demanded by the PW leadership right from the day the results were announced. Keeping the past experience of Talks with the TDP government when the latter maintained a dubious stance and went back when Talks with the PW leadership had actually come into the agenda, the PW had now categorically declared that it cannot think of Talks without the government declaring a cease-fire. It called for a simultaneous cease-fire by both sides, lifting of the ban on the Party and mass organizations, scrapping rewards on the heads of the leaders and members of the PW, punishment to notorious officials like Gautam Sawang, Nalini Prabhath, Praveen Kumar, DT Naik, Ayyannar, Balasubramanyam by setting up a Judicial Commission to enquire into the encounters that occurred during the TDP rule as promised by the Congress during the election campaign, and such other measures in order to facilitate the smooth conduct of Talks. Though these were not made pre-conditions for Talks they were pointed out as goodwill gestures on the part of the government. ( See the June 14 statement by the PW’s Politbureau member Prakash and the Secretary of APSC, Ramakrishna).

With the PW making it clear that it would not think of Talks without the government declaring a cease-fire, the latter at last declared a cease-fire for three months on 16 June. The PW responded by calling for a cease-fire on 20 June. It is the first time in the history of the revolutionary movement in India that a cease-fire had been agreed upon by the government and the revolutionary party.

The government, however, is faced with a dilemma. The police insist that the armed squads of the PW should not enter the villages but stay in the forests. This, they say, will stop any chance encounters between the two sides. The aim of the police is to prevent the PW from enhancing its mass base and gaining advantage of the respite. While appearing to concede to the demands for peace, the government at the same time, does not want to give anything substantial by preventing the armed squads from entering the villages. This attitude of the government and the police officials was condemned by many as it would mean curbing political freedom of political parties. The PW emphatically stated that, during the period of cease-fire, it would carry arms only for the self-defence of their cadres and not for threatening or intimidating anyone; that they would not use the arms as long as the police desisted from doing so i.e., the PW will not be the first to use weapons.

The government is clearly caught in a dilemma: the Congress Party had made too many promises which it finds difficult to chew. Given the very class nature and the notorious past history during 1990-94 when it had killed over six hundred members and sympathisers of the PW, imposed a ban on the Party and its mass organizations, began the dirty game of sending covert infiltrators into the Party to eliminate the leadership, armed, trained and funded the vigilante gangs; and clamped down heavily on all democratic rights of the people in the areas of armed struggle. These memories are sill fresh in the minds of the people. On the other hand, there are several compulsions on the government for ensuring peace and fulfilling at least some of the promises it made during the elections such as setting up a judicial commission to enquire into all the encounter killings under the TDP regime, ensuring better living standards for the peasant masses and so on which require peace and stability at least for a while. Most important of all, there is growing pressure from the various democratic organizations and even its own allies for ensuring a cordial and congenial atmosphere for Talks to take place. Reneging on its promises would lead to an escalation of violence making it impossible for the newly-elected legislators of the Congress and its allies from entering the rural areas and to implement their plans. The anti-TDP-BJP campaign of the PW during the election that saw the elimination of scores of the ruling party’s functionaries and served as an important factor leading to their defeat, is still fresh in the minds of all parties. On the other side, the police bosses are hell-bent upon wrecking the Talks and use various means to scuttle the peace and prevent the PW from making any substantial gains during the cease-fire period. No doubt, the issue of Talks would push the Congress-led government in the state into a deeper political crisis.

The issue of a separate Telangana state had come into sharp focus during the elections this year. While the TRS campaigned exclusively on this issue, the Congress struck an alliance with the TRS with the assurance that it would abide by the recommendations of the second States Reorganisaion Commission (SRC) and declared that it was not opposed to the formation of a separate state. The TRS insists that the recommendations of the first SRC should be implemented as it had called for the formation of a separate state of Telangana.

The Congress itself is deeply divided on the issue. The issue had become quite an emotional one prior to the election when a significant chunk of the Congress leaders from Telangana formed the Telangana Congress Forum and threatened to split the Party. Though a patch-up was finally made, the issue has been a volatile factor that could precipitate a split in the ruling Congress if it does not agree to a separate state ultimately. The Chief Minister, hailing from the Rayalaseema region, is firmly opposed to the granting of a separate state for Telangana. The CPI(M), an ally of the Congress, has theorized that the separate Telangana demand would go against the theory and spirit of Marxism and hence dogmatically opposed it tooth and nail. The CPI appears to be more pragmatic. While saying that theoretically it opposes the demand for statehood it would not object if the people demanded it. The TRS on the other hand, has no way out other than drifting away from the Congress alliance if the latter goes against the demand. Thus the issue of Telangana threatens to fracture the ruling alliance as well as the biggest party in the alliance, the Congress party, though this would not destabilize the government in the near future.

The biggest destabilizing factor, however, is the aspirations of the people of Telangana. The demand for a separate Telangana has made a niche in the minds of the people of the region as it has been one of the major issues on which the elections were fought. It was also the issue that had drastically reduced the vote bank of the TDP in the Telangana region. The slogan of ‘United Andhra Pradesh’ advanced by the TDP failed miserably. Separate Telangana demand was the basis for the Congress-TRS alliance that had contributed immensely for the victory of the Congress. The campaign for separate Telangana had raised high hopes and expectations among the people of the region and it is unlikely that the issue would die down even if the parties that had campaigned on the slogan betray the people’s aspirations.

The dilly-dallying attitude of the Congress on the issue would bring more and more people into the streets sooner or later. Even the reactionary leaders of the TRS have been talking of ‘suicide squads’ and open war if the demand was not met within six months. The forces that were unleashed will not remain silent even if the leaders want to. Thus the YSR government has only two choices before it: grant statehood for Telangana, or brutally suppress the movement for a separate Telangana. The attempts by the Congress leaders to bribe the TRS legislators through attractive posts cannot stem the people’s anger.

The anti- World Bank rhetoric of the Congress party and its allies like the CPI and the CPI(M) was an important factor in garnering the votes of the people disenchanted with the TDP’s submission to the WB’s dictates. While the Congress assured the people that it would not bow to the WB’s conditions, its allies went even further by demanding a thorough review of the entire agreements and deals the TDP government had made with the imperialist agencies and corporations. All this rhetoric had raised hopes among the people that the new government would scrap some of the unfair deals made with the imperialist agencies, particularly with the WB-IMF-WTO, and reduce the dependency on them. The Congress and its allies had declared eloquently prior to the elections that if the World Bank insisted on meeting its conditions, they would even stop taking fresh loans and seek alternative ways of raising funds for development.

That this populist rhetoric is meant for public consumption alone and has no real intent is clear to anyone who knows the history of the Congress party. It was the Congress government of PVN with Manmohan Singh, the present Prime Minister, as the then Finanace Minister, that had opened the flood-gates of the country for free and unhindered flow of imperialist capital, began to implement the LPG policies as per the dictates of the World Bank and IMF, and created the basis for the present situation in the country.

Now that the same old stooge of the World Bank has assumed the mantle of the Prime Minister, and another proven stooge, Chidambaram, had taken charge of the Ministry of Finance, none but a fool would think that there would be any reversal of the policies of LPG or reduction of dependency on the World Bank and the imperialists. Due to the pressure from the so-called Left parties like the CPI and CPI(M), "globalization with a human face" has become the refrain nowadays which means throwing a few crumbs to the deprived sections even as the rich get further fattened.

The ruling alliance in AP thus faces another great dilemma. On the one hand, it had bequeathed a huge debt of around Rs. 63,000 crores from the predecessor TDP government on which interest alone consumes a third of the state’s annual income. It has to resort to further borrowing from the same imperialist agencies even to repay the interest. Given its exploitative class character, the Congress can never think of making the rich pay for the various projects on the anvil and other expenditures. It will burden the poor even more heavily with high taxes and price-hikes. The policy of scrapping the subsidies and social welfare schemes will have to continue due to its comprador character and proven loyalty to the imperialists. Moreover, with a depleted Treasury and mounting debt repayment obligations, it has no resources at its disposal. Hence the crisis is bound to deepen further leading to growing discontent among the masses.

The ‘model of development’ pursued by the TDP government and its own Congress governments at the Centre and various states have been under attack by the people and various democratic organizations. It should be noted that the mandate of the people in Election-2004 went directly against these very lop-sided, disoriented, elitist, pro-imperialist pattern of growth and development. That is why the ‘feelgoodwallas’ and the ‘India Shining’ propagandists were routed. The unfolding pattern of development under the Congress regime, despite its rhetoric of ‘globalisation with a human face’ wouls be no different from that of the TDP-BJP essentially. The people are already realizing the hypocrisy and Double-Speak of the Congress government and it would not take long for them to realize that the only alternative before them to resolve their basic problems is to wage a relentless, militant struggle against the new exploiters and bandits who had replaced the old set of thugs and bandits.

Election-2004 is a barometer of the popular rage and pent-up fury and hatred of the masses towards the policies pursued by the ruling classes so far, a thorough disapproval of these policies. It is a reflection of the people’s democratic aspirations for a better society. As their aspirations remain unfulfilled under the new set of bandits in power in the state and the Centre, a new wave of militant revolutionary struggles is bound to erupt and facilitate the advance of the ongoing people’s war in the country to transform the semi-colonial, semi-feudal India into a new democratic society free from feudal and imperialist exploitation.

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