Volume 6, No. 5, May 2005

The correspondent of Kolkatta Telegraph writing on Feb 6, 2005 noted how successful the CPN(Maoist) Bandh was. The King of Nepal’s writ ran only 25 kilometres outside the capital Kathmandu. The correspondent said that :"Quoting a local policeman— "Beyond this you drive at your risk. But it’d be better if you don’t," the policemen warn us at Sangha, about 25 km east of Kathmandu, on the Arniko Highway that winds through the mountains up to the Chinese border."

"We decide to take the risk and drive up to Dhulikhel, another five kilometers, but can go no farther. The road is blocked beyond this little town, a popular tourist resort, in Kavre district. The Maoists have banned all traffic on the road beyond — as part of their three-day bandh in protest against King Gyanendra’s takeover of the government."

"If the Maoists can so push the security men on one of the two main highways of the kingdom (the other being the Tribhuvan Highway running down to the Indian border to the south) that is only 20 km away from Kathmandu, it is not difficult to guess how things are in remoter parts of this mountainous country. It is generally agreed that the Maoists run parallel governments in about 40 of the 75 districts of Nepal."

Sharat Pradhan, Press Trust of India correspondent writing from Bardia, Nepal on February 11, 2005 (see Rediff.com) confirms the above correspondent’s report and reports that:

"The monarchy may be holding fort in Kathmandu and the other large urban pockets of this Himalayan kingdom, but the writ of King Gyanendra does not appear to lie beyond these places. As one moves away from the bigger towns, the presence of Maoist rebels becomes visible. The rebels appeared to be in full command in large parts of Bardia district in north-western Nepal."

"The Maoists have their own FM channel—Rashtriya Jan Gantantra Nepal—blaring out their daily news bulletin in violation of the government ban on news on all 43 private FM radio channels across Nepal."

"While local cops, including the armed police, rarely venture out once it gets dark, military soldiers too move only in groups or contingents and only in vehicles. Everything comes to a standstill at 8pm, when even uniformed gun-toting cops and soldiers are as reluctant to step out on the streets as any commoner. Nepalese security forces can be seen at every step as one crosses the Indo-Nepal border at Nepalgunj from India’s most populous northern state, Uttar Pradesh. Nepalgunj is northwest Nepal’s busiest commercial hub"

"Uniformed men of the Nepalese civil police and the Nepalese Armed Security Force can be seen poised for any eventuality inside their barbed-wire fenced units in different parts of Nepalgunj town. Every road junction here is a police picket with barrels of semi-automatic rifles peeping out of holes between systematically stacked sand bags, which serve as bunkers."

"The impact of the royal regime is visible for the next 20km along the east-west national highway from Nepalgunj. However, barely 15 km further down in Bansgarhi village in Bardia district, the scene is different. Not to talk about men in uniform, even the local police station looks abandoned. "No government functionary dares to come here; the Royal Nepalese Army personnel come and survey from helicopters these days", remarked a local shopkeeper."

"The last that we saw the Royal Nepalese Army here was some three months ago, when a huge contingent raided the local lodges and some houses in search of Maoists... but it was of no avail", the shopkeeper told this correspondent."

The Bandh (a form of strike) call by the CPN(Maoist) to protest this illegal Royalist coup has been extraordinarily successful. According to the BBC report of Sunday, February 13, 2005:"The Maoists’ call for a blockade coincided with Sunday’s ninth anniversary of their uprising. The call for transport to stop moving into and out of the main cities appears to have been effective. Traffic around Kathmandu has been reduced to a trickle; the same has happened in the western cities of Pokhara and Nepalganj." The same BBC report further said that : "Purna Shrestha, of the Nepal Transport Entrepreneurs’ Federation, told the AFP (Agence France Press) news agency: "Very few vehicles except minibuses are operating in the south-eastern part of the country with long-route bus services and public goods carriers at a standstill."

In a Kolkatta Telegraph article (February 7, 2005), Deb Mukharji, the former Indian Ambassador to Nepal, states that: "The almost exponential spread of the Maoist insurgency over the past few years was gradually squeezing the economy of Nepal and the Royal Nepal Army, despite considerable international assistance, has not been able to check its growth. The Maoists seem to be able to operate at will and have a substantial presence in a majority of Nepal’s districts. Meanwhile, in Kathmandu, there has been a game of musical chairs in the appointment of prime ministers since the dismissal of the elected government and dissolution of the elected lower house. Even before these exercises of the royal prerogative, the political parties of Nepal had not distinguished themselves in any worthy manner. Within a short period of the restoration of democracy in 1991, Nepali politics was characterized by inter- and intra-party feuding arising largely from personality conflicts and the desire for power."

One correspondent says that : "Nepal is the 12th poorest country in the world, where, according to the World Bank, 42 percent of the population live below the poverty line. The Asian Development Bank estimates that the annual national income is just $241 per capita."

According to the same correspondent the main causes for the royalist coup in Nepal were these: "But the real reason appears to be a chimera, a fantasy that the government can win a military victory over the CPN(Maoist). It is an illusion fueled in large part by an avalanche of modern weaponry, plus military training, that has poured into the country from India, the U.S., and Britain."(details below)

According to Sujan Dutta, correspondent of a Kolkatta Telegraph, Feb 6, 2005, the balance of forces in Nepal are as follows: "Nepal’s army of about 78,000 troops is in the middle of an expansion and is largely equipped, funded and trained by India but the Maoist rebels are no pushover. Military assessments doubt the ability of the RNA to pursue a highly mobile war in Nepal’s rugged landscape that gives the guerrillas a huge advantage."

"The most crucial and mobile units of the RNA are in the Kathmandu valley. Among these are a special operations brigade, a reconnaissance squadron, a parachute battalion, a special forces regiment, a ranger battalion, an aviation brigade, an artillery brigade, an engineers brigade, a signals brigade and an armed police brigade."

"According to Paul Soren, a researcher under Sukh Deo Muni, professor at Jawaharlal Nehru University and an expert who has the ear of policymakers in New Delhi’s security establishment, the People’s Liberation Army of the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist) has its headquarters in the mid-western region near Rolpa" In a side bar, the figures for the PLA was estimated at 7,000 to 12,000 fighters organized in three divisions."

According to another report, the heavy arms aid to the royalist junta and the resulting balance of forces are configured as such:

"More than 12,000 U.S. M-16s (automatic rifles), 5,000 Belgium FN sub-machine guns, and some 20,000 rifles from India have filled the arsenals of the Royal Nepal Army (RNA) since 2001. Britain has added helicopters armed with machine guns and rockets. The size of the RNA has grown from 50,000 to 73,000 and is due to reach 80,000 next year. If one counts the police, Royalist forces now number 138,000."

"While the insurgent (Maoist) forces are small — 4,000 core soldiers and about 15,000 supporters — virtually no independent observers believe the central government can defeat them, because the roots of the war are in the social and economic poverty of the nation."

In an Asia Times article, correspondent Sudha Ramachandran (May 6, 2004) stated that : "The Maoist insurgency in Nepal is in its eighth year. What started as a small band of idealists and intellectuals is a battle-hardened guerrilla army today, capable of taking on not only the country’s police force but also its armed forces. The Maoists control large swathes of territory - around two-fifths of the Himalayan kingdom’s land. Their influence runs across almost all of Nepal’s 75 districts.

The US, China, India and Britain are backing the government’s efforts to quell the Maoist insurgency. These countries have contributed military hardware and training to the Royal Nepalese Army (RNA) in its operations against the Maoists. The US, for instance, is said to have provided aid to finance Nepal’s purchase of M-16 rifles and night vision equipment. It is also training RNA officers in counter-insurgency warfare. In August 2003, the US enhanced its grants to Nepal from US$24 million a year to $38 million a year in wake of the insurgency." In another news source, it was reported that the US government helped the Royal Nepalese Army acquire two Russian made Mi-17 helicopters, last year. These are among the world’s largest troop carrying helicopters.

According to Agence France Press, (February 9, 2005) "the first court action since the (Nepalese) king sacked the government, seized power and imposed a state of emergency, a Supreme Court (of Nepal) judge Wednesday ordered his newly-appointed government of loyalists to explain the arrest of a former bar association (of Nepal) chief, a court source said.

The court issued the order in response to a habeas corpus petition by Nepal Bar Association president Shambhu Thapa, after former bar association president Sindhunath Pyakurel was arrested the day the king seized power on February 1.

According to the BBC of February 6, 2005:

"Human rights groups in Nepal have appealed to the international community to press the authorities to reverse harsh emergency measures. They say the government headed by King Gyanendra who has taken direct power is spreading terror and panic. Journalists as well as political figures have been detained following the introduction of emergency measures.

"The 25 human rights groups have sent a message to some of the world’s top leaders, including the UN Secretary General Kofi Annan, President George W Bush and many other heads of state and government."

"They say the Nepalese people are now living under what they call an illegal military rule headed by the king and that the monarch’s actions violate international practices and legal standards."

"They say human rights activists are being increasingly monitored and harassed.

"The BBC’s Charles Haviland in Kathmandu said the general-secretary of the Federation of Nepalese Journalists had also been detained."

"The rights groups are urging the international leaders to end military support for the new government, press it to say where detainees are, and refrain from torture."

"It asks them to use diplomacy to make the king lift censorship and restore the cut telephone lines and, more broadly, to urge the restoration of democracy."

One correspondent reports that the "civil war, which has claimed some 11,000 lives, has been an ugly one, the brutality of which has sharply escalated with the recent influx of arms and counterinsurgency training. Over 800 people died this past December (2004) alone."

The same correspondent says that : "According to Amnesty International, there has also been a "dramatic escalation" in the number of "disappearances," some 378 in just the last year, more than in the previous five years combined."

"Amnesty has called on government security forces to halt the practice and to stop blocking investigations into the disappearances by the courts and Nepal’s Human Rights Commission. Amnesty also charges widespread use of torture and extra-judicial executions by the RNA and the police."

The same correspondent also writes that: "Some Scandinavian nations have already proposed UN intervention, as has the Asian Human Rights Commission. In a recent statement, the Hong Kong-based rights group said, "If no serious intervention is made at this stage by the United Nations and the international community to stop the escalation of violence, a bloodbath could easily take place while the movement of the people and news is restricted."

Human Rights Watch a US based international Human Rights Group underlines its concerns as follows :

"Because the constitution does not allow the King’s actions to be challenged in court, Nepal’s population is effectively at the mercy of the security forces, which have a history of widespread and serious violations of human rights."  

"With all power concentrated in the hands of the King, he is now responsible for what happens to the people detained after the takeover," said Brad Adams, Asia Director for Human Rights Watch. "In handing the army unbridled power, he will also be responsible for the predictable human rights abuses the army commits under the state of emergency."

"Although information from areas outside Kathmandu remains limited due to the cutting of telephone and internet services, Human Rights Watch said that at least 150 political leaders and student activists have been arbitrarily detained or placed under house arrest since the February 1 royal takeover." 

"During past crackdowns and the last state of emergency (2001-2002) the security forces arrested numerous journalists, student leaders, political activists, lawyers, and suspected Maoist sympathizers who were then "disappeared"—arrested and never seen again, and presumably killed in custody." 

"We are not just concerned about the arbitrary arrests that are taking place across Nepal," said Adams. "Our chief concern is that some of those being arrested may never be seen again, that they might ‘disappear’ or be killed in custody, as happened during the last state of emergency."  

The Feb 1, 2004 royalist coup in Nepal was many things, but one thing it definitely was not. It was not a surprise. Imperialist magazines have long been predicting it, even encouraging it. This is how imperialists use propaganda to prepare public opinion in the western (OECD) countries for their interventionist activities in the east and south. The British weekly, Economist, of December 2, 2004, pretty much laid out the script for the February 1, 2005 coup. Confidently proud of the on-going arming and training of the Royal Nepalese forces by India and US, the Economist magazine wrote:

"This (the foreign military aid) helps contain the Maoist threat. But it also bolsters those in the king’s camp who think that a military victory is possible and might be easier if the trappings of democracy were jettisoned. The information minister, seen as the king’s man in the cabinet, has dropped hints of a more ‘authoritarian’ government. Many human-rights activists and politicians in Kathmandu expect the king and the army to assume more direct power and, blaming the war, suspend many civil liberties."

On Feb. 4, 2005, Reuters News Agency reported that the RNA Chief of Staff Gen. Pyar Jung Thapa, said the coup was aimed at forcing the CPN(Maoist) back to the negotiating table. As the arrest of trade union and political leaders continued in Kathmandu, the army chief said that, "Now we can solely go after the Maoists in a single-minded manner without having to worry about what’s going to happen on the streets, people’s agitation." Clearly the royalist coup was a maneuver to defend the capital, Kathmandu, against a national uprising. As Reuters reported, the royalists were definitely anticipating "people’s agitation".

That comment by Gen. Thapa on "forcing" the Maoists to "negotiate" echoed a statement made last year by former U.S. Ambassador to Nepal, Michael Malinowski, that the CPN(Maoist) "literally have to be bent back to the table." It does not take much to see that what the US Ambassador really means by "literally … bent back to the table" is actually an attempt to force an abject surrender of the CPN (Maoist) at the negotiating table when the results of the large number of military engagements, is the exact opposite. Through a series of sustained military victories, over the last nine years, the CPN(Maoist) have besieged the royalist military forces to within a few kilometers of the capital. (see above)

The logic of Indian expansionism dictates that India will try to internationalize the political crisis created by the royalist coup in Nepal.

The 1950 India Nepal treaty which gives India the right to unilaterally send in military forces to occupy Nepal. In fact this relationship is so overwhelmingly one-sided that according to a United Press International article, by Harbaksh Singh Nanda (February 8, 2005) the current head of Indian Army, General J.J. Singh, is also the honorary chief of the Royal Nepalese Army. There are no other examples in the world today of two neighbouring countries, where the commander of one country’s army is the honorary chief of the other country’s army.

The more so to cover up India’s real domination of Nepalese political and military sectors of society. If Indian invaded Nepal by itself to save the Royalist neck, it would not only stand condemned internationally but would run the risk of replaying its defeat when it acted alone in invading Sri Lanka and splitting East Pakistan into Bangladesh. Indian expansionism is overwhelmingly unpopular in those two countries. This coup by the Nepalese king is a sign of keen desperation. It is highly unpopular in Nepal with all classes of society. The Nepalese king may not be the most credible Indian agent today. For the next stage and as a way out of this crisis, the Indian government may wish to change horses and find a more pliable puppet, who has some temporary credibility with the Nepalese people. By arresting all the parliamentary party leaders, without exception, the Nepalese king has given the Indian expansionists in New Delhi, a prison full of recycled politicians from which to choose his own future replacement.

Just a few days after the coup, the reactionary Indian press was already posting the new moves. "In today’s globalizing world, no one should consider geography crucial to its strategic influence. So, it would be in India’s interest to internationalize the Nepal crisis and try to win over as many nations as possible to our point of view," said The Times of India in an editorial. "It is imperative that India take up the issue at the U.N. and lobby to work out a consensus on the best way to restore democracy in Nepal." The consensus referred to above is the hyper-activity of the imperialist super-power and its local power broker, Indian expansionism, to suppress all forward movement to the Democratic Republic called for by the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist). No one should mistake why Indian ruling circles want to "internationalize" the political crisis in Nepal. It is the only way that they can credibly cover up their on-going interventionist and expansionist activities.

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