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With American Air
Force planes landing over 1000 US military personnel in Uzbekistan, the
contention to control the vast Central Asian oil deposits is hotting up. Oil
reserves in this region are estimated at 200 billion barrels (equivalent to that
of Iraq) plus natural gas reserves of a gigantic 7.9 trillion cubic metres. The
deposits under the Caspian Sea alone are valued at $4 trillion. A pipeline
through Afghanistan is the most economic route to transport these deposits to
South Asia and further East. The potential profits from such a pipeline are
enormous. The US troops in Uzbekistan and the open offer from Georgia, will act
as a double-edged sword — to attack Afghanistan, and to also assert domination
over Central Asia.
Ever since the
collapse of the Soviet Union there has been a virtual gold rush for this huge
wealth. This scramble has been the cause for much chaos and turmoil in this
region. Primarily America has sought to oust Russian influence in this region.
In addition Europe, Iran and even China have tried to grab some of these vast
reserves. There have been numerous assassinations, coups, and armed conflicts
between various ruling-class factions in most of these CIS countries supported
and promoted by one imperialist power or the other. In addition, the entire
region has been swept by Islamic insurgencies, which is a result of the terrible
impoverisation of the masses and their alienation.
Georgia, which is the
most strategic gateway to Central Asian oil, was the first of these countries to
fall prey to US schemes. From 1991 to 1993, a bloody proxy war raged with pro-US
elements of the ruling classes fighting to oust the pro-Moscow rulers. Finally,
the pro-Moscow President was assassinated by the US stooge, Shervardnadze, who
seized power through a coup. In 1995 Georgia signed an agreement with the
imperialists to build a pipeline for Azeri oil across its territory up to the
Black Sea port of Supsa. Soon after this, there were a series of unsuccessful
assassinations on Shervardnadze by pro-Moscow elements.
In 1993 the
Azerbaijan president was de-stabalised and the new chief, Heydar Aliev,
immediately signed oil contracts favourable to the US monopolies. Between 1993
and 1995 four unsuccessful coup attempts were made against Aliev, with Moscow’s
backing. The Kremlin also extended support to the warlords in the region to oust
the pro-west ruling clique. Azerbaijan’s oilfields are one of the largest.
Tajikistan also
experienced widespread civil war and several coup attempts since the collapse of
the USSR. An entire Russian tank division, which intervened in the conflict on
behalf of the Tajik President, was captured during this war. This forced the
Russians to play a less active role in the conflict. The declining influence of
Russia in the CIS, and its inability to wield its power against the rebels, led
the Tajik government to strike compromises with the Islamic United Tajik
Opposition (UTO). In 1997, the UTO, which had close links with the Afghan
Taliban and controlled half of Tajik territory, was provided four ministerial
posts in a coalition government.
One third of
Uzbekistan is composed of Tajik people. With the success of the Islamic militia
in Tajikistan and the decline of Russian influence, the Uzbek government began
to tilt towards the US.
In late 1997 the
Armenian parliament was stormed while it was in session and an armed gang took
hostage parliament members, after killing a minister and five other members of
parliament. This action came just 24 hours after the departure of a top US
government functionary from Yerevan, the Armenian capital. However, the gang
leaders surrendered, allowing for continued Russian domination over Armenia.
In 1997 itself the US
Congress passed a resolution declaring the Caspian and the Caucasus region to be
a "zone of vital American interest". In furtherance of this policy, the
US established the GUAM federation in 1998, expanding it to GUUAM in 1999,
involving Georgia, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan and Maldova. The GUUAM
extended wholehearted support to the US/NATO military action on Yugoslavia.
Fascist Turkey has
been used as the expansionist regional arm of the US to establish control over
the southern GUUAM countries. Since 1997, Turkey has positioned thousands of its
civil and military officials in Georgia and Azerbaijan. It has provided special
training to the armies of these countries in pipeline protection strategies.
In November 1999 the
US President, Clinton, visited Turkey to sign an agreement with the governments
of Turkey, Georgia, Azerbaijan, and Kazakhastan, to build a pipeline for moving
oil from the floor of the Caspian to the port of Ceyhan, which lies on the
southern Mediterranean coast of Turkey. This agreement would enable
transportation of Caspian oil, circumventing dependence on Russia or Iran for
transit.
Iran had suggested a
southern pipeline from the land-locked Caspian to the Persian Gulf. This is the
shortest and most economical route, which opens the door to both Europe and the
East. In fact one US Company even signed a letter of intent with the Iranian
government to this effect. But, Clinton, representing the collective interest of
US monopoly capital, called a halt to these individual programmes and instead
pushed through the proposal to build a pipeline from the Caspian via Azerbaijan
circumventing pro-Russian Armenia, entering Georgia and from there descending
via Kurdish territory to Turkey’s southern harbour of Ceyhan. The route was
double the length of the Iranian one, and entailed massive costs, but it was US
imperialism’s geo-strategic calculations, which led Clinton to push through this
proposal.
The US has also drawn
up a proposal to construct a pipeline for gas from Turkmenistan running parallel
to the Baku-Ceyhan route right up to Ceyhan.
A third pipeline
project was being explored by a European consortium, which has kept both Russia
and the US out. It seeks the pumping of Caspian oil from the Shah Deniz oil
fields, bypassing Russia.
In November 1999,
close on the heals of Clinton’s announcement of the Baku-Ceyhan pipeline, the
Caspian Pipeline Consortium, led by Russia, announced plans for a $2.2 billion
pipeline to carry Kazakh oil from Tengiz field in the Caspian basin to the
Russian port of Novorosssiysk bypassing Chechenya, but crossing through
Dagesthan. The 1,500 km project was proposed by Russia to underrate the
feasibility of the Baku-Ceyhan project. But the brief movements for Dagesthan
independence in August 1999 came as no coincidence and had the potential of
upsetting these moves by Russia.
While this is a
picture of the contention amongst the three imperialist groupings for the
control of Caspian oil/gas pipeline routes, there is an equally intense scramble
amongst them for the control of the purchase rights for the extraction of
oil/gas from its basin by various oil consortia. Till its collapse, the USSR
maintained a monopoly not only over the transport, but also on the extraction of
Caspian oil. But this scenario has changed drastically since the collapse of the
Soviet superpower in 1991.
10 US-based TNCs, one
British TNC (BP Amoco) and the Russian oil giant, Lukoil, formed the Azerbaijan
International Oil Consortium (AIOC). The US companies included Atlantic
Richfield, Chevron, Exxon, Mobil, Pennzoil, Philips Petroleum and Texaco. The
AIOC has got control of the three biggest Azeri oilfields. Kazakhstan too has
vast petroleum resources, and a substantial portion of the oil reserves are in
the Tengiz oil fields in the Caspian basin. Besides China, western oil companies
are heavily involved in Kazakhstan. The most important projects are an agreement
with Chevron to develop the Tengiz (in western Kazakhstan) and an agreement with
a consortium, which includes British Gas and Texaco to develop a field in
Kazakhstan. Along with the European Consortium, these western oil companies have
cornered 75% of the oil extraction projects of the Caspian. The Russian oil
consortium has seen its hold dwindle and it has repeatedly complained against
unfair play in the Azheri oil bids.
This then is a
picture of the intense scramble between the imperialist powers for control of
pipeline routes and extraction projects in Central Asia. But, the problem faced
by the oil tycoons entering the region is that most of the routes pass through
conflict zones and/or hostile countries. As a result most of the proposed
projects are still lingering in doubt, as the companies involved are hesitant to
make the huge investments unless they are assured of security for these routes.
It is this instability in the region which makes Afghanistan all the more a
prize catch. A pacified Afghanistan will open out one of the most lucrative
routes for Central Asia oil/gas to South and South East Asia. To understand this
significance let us look at the problems being faced by the other routes.
To take the Russian
routes. The one proposed from Azerbaijan to link up with its existing pipeline
system will have to pass through Cechanya. The recently built pipeline from
Kazhakhstan passes through Dagestan.
The Western route has
two alternatives. The first passes through Georgia to reach its Black Sea port
of Supsa, and then to Europe utilising tankers. This would have to pass through
areas in Georgia, which are under the strong influence of the nationality
movements of the Abkhazians and the South Ossetians. The other is the lengthy
and expensive route through Turkey. But this too must pass through Kurdish
territory — though temporarily peaceful, due to the capitulation of the PKK
leadership, it could once again explode anytime.
The Southern route
through Iran, which is the most economical, is as yet not considered safe due to
the country’s anti-US positions and its growing ties with Russia.
Finally, there is the
Eastern route planned by China to carry oil from the two oilfields it has
purchased in Kzakhstan all the way to Shanghai, 3,000 kms away. This faces the
problem that the pipeline must pass through territory dominated by the militant
Uighur nationality.
With such conflicts
and chaos reining in the region the pacification of Afghanistan becomes all the
more urgent. Whichever imperialist gets control over Afghanistan gets control of
an important gateway to Central Asian oil and natural gas. Though it may not
help bring oil to Europe, it brings Central Asian oil to the doorstep of South
Asia, which could then flow even beyond to East Asia, China and even Japan. If
opened up, this route will effectively ease out Chinese and Iran’s influence in
the region, making their routes infructuous. The potential profits from such
control are gigantic; that is why the desperate scramble.
In addition, America
has used the pretext of ‘war on the Taliban’ to move its military might into the
very heart of Central Asia, to take direct control of the region.
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