Volume 1, No. 9, November 2000

The same Maurya Sheraton, the same photo pose before the Taj Mahal, a similar address to the joint session of parliament .... it was a feeble attempt to mimick the chief superpower bandit, Clinton. This ex-KGB spymaster, after taking power, is seeking a more assertive imperialist role, after the debacle of the Yeltsin years. Yet, this lame imperialist chieftain, presiding over a mafia-type economy at home, has just witnessed its last toe-hold in East Europe — Yugoslavia — begin its drift away from its clutches. With India, while the Soviet legacy of the past lingers on, specifically in the sphere of armaments, general relations with Russia has been at a low key. A common problem faced in Chechenya and Kashmir by the two rulers, was, of course, a bond that helped sustain relations.

But, below the bonhommie of the 17 agreements signed, the trust of the earlier Soviet period did not exist. With the Indian rulers licking the feet of the almighty superpower, a bankrupt Russia, was small fry, and Putin chiefly focussed on major arms deals and nuclear collaboration. Russia got what it wanted : gigantic sale of weapons and assurances of extensive nuclear collaboration. The Indian rulers, as usual, got the crumbs: big kickbacks and assurances that Russia would once again buy Indian tea and tobacco, which are in a state of crisis.

Let us view the significance of Putin’s visit, on India within the backdrop of the changing geo-political alliances in the sub-continent, Afghanistan and Central Asia.

The much acclaimed Indo-Russian Strategic Partnership signed by Vajpayee and Putin, had more rhetoric than essence. Though it covered vast areas of politics, economics, defence, science and technology, and culture, it was more a declaration of vague intentions rather than concrete steps at collaboration. Unlike Clinton’s Vision Statement, wherein each clause was linked to a direct follow up, here the follow up was only in the sphere of arms deals, nuclear collaboration and coordination in the fight against terrorism emanating from Afghanistan. But even while signing this statement, both parties went out of their way to state that this ‘new partnership’ was "not directed against any other state or group of states".

On most international issues Putin was careful to keep its views on line with that of the other imperialist powers. On Kashmir it called for a negotiated settlement with Pakistan, it gave vague support to India’s membership to the UN Security Council and demanded that India sign the CTBT.

There was a joint document on closer cooperation on tackling the Taliban and it was decided to establish a Joint Working Group on Afghanistan (India has already set up similar groups with the USA and Iran).

Putin sought to somewhat retrieve the relations between the two countries, that had considerably weakened after the collapse of the Soviet Union and the decline of Russia as an imperialist superpower. Though some agreements were signed in 1993/94, Russia was too pre-occupied saving its crumbling economy and protecting its backyard from an American/EU/NATO political offensive, to bother much about India.

In fact, in January 1993 a new Friendship treaty was signed, but at that time the Russians clearly said that this was qualitatively different from the 1971 one. And again, in June ’94, two more agreements were signed, but both lacked teeth. The first was a "Declaration on the Further Development and Intensification of Cooperation between the Republic of India and the Russian Federation"; the second was the "Moscow Declaration on the Protection of the Interests of Pluralistic States." Though the present agreement on "strategic partnership" is similar to those earlier three, the arms and nuclear agreements will, no doubt, to some extent, continue to make India’s defence dependent on Russia.

India and Russia signed an agreement to establish "an inter-ministerial commission on military-technical cooperation" and signed three major defence deals. The inter-governmental commission on defence has been set up to control and coordinate all aspects of military hardware exchanges between the two sides.

In the first two defence deals India, will acquire 320 of the Russian T-90 tanks and manufacture 150 SU-30 MK1 fighter jets at the HAL (Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd) in a combined deal worth $3 billion (Rs. 14,000 crores). The proposed ‘indigenously’ built 150 Sukois would be in addition to the 50 acquired by Delhi (only 10 delivered so far) in a deal worth more than $1.4 billion signed in 1996. These deals were struck after months of haggling by the two sides over the price of the tanks and fighters. With Russia’s defence industry in the doldrums, this huge agreement came as a boon to it.

Besides this, after years of negotiations, Russia finally made India take its outdated aircraft carrier, Admiral Gorshkov. This is lying as junk with the Russians and is to be dumped on India supposedly free of cost. Ofcourse, in this agreement, Russia will undertake its modernisation, at a massive cost; and with the aircraft carrier India will have to buy 40 MIG-29K planes, Sea Harriers, and also KA-28 and KA-31 early warning helicopters.

The Russians have also stated that weapons deals with India, worth $5 billion to $7 billion, are in the pipeline, including air defence systems, rockets and conventional artillery, more aircraft, cruise missiles and other arms.

Besides these arms deals, enormous emphasis was put on long-term collaboration in the nuclear field. Obviously the Russians want to pass on the Chernobyl experience to India !! Top atomic energy officials signed a Memorandum of Understanding on intensifying bilateral cooperation in the peaceful use of the atomic energy. Russia has plans in partaking in 50% of India’s numerous new nuclear energy projects. Russia stated that international restrictions would not interfere with Indo-Russian nuclear cooperation, whether India signed the CTBT or not. To emphasise the enormous significance of this area of collaboration to Russia, Putin payed a high profile visit to the BARC (Bhabha Atomic Research Centre) in Mumbai. This nuclear collaboration bye-passes the restrictions imposed by the US, after the Pokhran nuclear explosion.

Though India has, of late, diversified its arms purchases, involving Israel, South Africa, France and Britain, the size of these agreements indicates that, dependence on Russia will continue. Though earlier purchases have proved to be sub-standard, the kickbacks from Russia being high, India continues its purchases from Russia.

Putin addressed a gathering of CEOs of India’s comprador bourgeoisie in a bid to increase bilateral trade and once again enter the core sector of the economy. But with Russia low on both capital and technology, it had little to offer. India’s main focus was on trade, as the huge drop since the Soviet days, has adversely affected many commodities in India, like tea and tobacco.

Since 1990 bilateral trade with Russia has dropped from $5 billion to barely $1 billion. In addition to this, half-a-billion dollars of trade survives on the outstanding rupee-rouble debt, which will evaporate when most of this debt is erased by 2003.

At present (1999-2000), India’s exports to Russia is only 2.5% of total exports; while imports from Russia are a mere 1.3% of total imports.

Earlier, on September 12, in a bid to boost trade between the two countries, India, Russia and Iran signed an agreement on an international north-south corridor, which will facilitate faster and smoother transport of goods between the two countries — along the corridor connecting India through the sea route to Iran and then via the Caspian Sea to Russia and beyond.

India has not been high on Russia’s agenda except to dump its huge stock of military hardware. Putin has indicated his foreign policy priorities by visiting Europe and East Asia first, before coming to the sub-continent.

But what shocked the Indian ruling elite most, was the fact that just a few days prior to Putin’s India visit, a special presidential envoy visited Pakistan. This is the first time in decades that such a high-level visit of a Russian to Pakistan has taken place — and that too on the eve of Putin’s visit to India. It was an open slap in the face, which the Indian rulers tried to play down, blinded as they were by the huge kick-backs in the offing. And as though this was not enough, to rub salt in the wounds, the Special Envoy announced in Islamabad (September 27), that Pakistan had invited Putin, and that the Russian leader had accepted the offer to visit their country. And, two days before Putin’s departure for India, the Russian media reported, at length, that the Special Envoy’s visit to Pakistan was not just about taking up the issue of ‘terrorism’ (in Central Asia), but the first step towards a serious dialogue with Pakistan.

The process of dialogue had, in fact, begun a month earlier, after the meeting between Putin and Musharraf on the sidelines of the UN Millennium Summit. This was followed by a visit of Pakistan’s Intelligence Chief to Moscow. The Special Envoy, while in Pakistan, met Foreign Minister, Sattar, Interior Minister, Haider, and ISI chief Lt.General Mahamood Ahmed.

Obviously, Russia seeks to keep its options open in its relations with countries in the sub-continent, specifically given India’s recent close alliance with the US. Besides, Russia hopes to ‘engage’ Pakistan to help rein in the Taliban’s support to islamic insurgencies in Central Asia which are threatening to take on menacing proportions. Specifically, with the Taliban’s major victories against General Masood’s Northern Alliance this summer, and the continuing guerrilla strikes in Chechenya, Russia feels increasingly threatened.

The Taliban now controls 90% of Afghanistan as increasingly more commanders of the Northern Alliance have been surrendering. Moscow has been actively propping up the Northern Alliance, seeing it as a buffer between the Taliban areas and Tajikistan and the rest of Central Asia. Russia has lately formed a military alliance with 5 CIS countries to fight the danger of Islamic insurgencies and the threat of Taliban forces entering Tajikistan.

The entire situation is in a flux. While, on the one hand, Russia seeks to use India as part of the anti-Islamic axis to pressurise Afghanistan and sustain its long-standing ties with the country; on the other, it cannot fully trust India, and so seeks to engage Pakistan, to prevent islamic support to insurgencies in Central Asia.

As far as the people of all these countries go, they have little to gain from all these political games. Russian arms will be used against the people of India, and against India’s neighbours; in order to crush the people’s movements and facilitate India’s hegemony in South Asia. Also, the Russian and Indian leaders’ political manoeuvrings, is aimed at crushing by force the national aspirations of the people of Kashmir, Chechenya, Central Asian Republics, etc. These 17 agreements between Russia and India is a deal between gangsters and criminals of both countries. The peoples of Russia and India must jointly oppose such deals, as part of the worldwide joint struggles against imperialism and all reaction.

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